Snap Poll: Majority not worried about recession

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In a recent interview with the Rochester Business Journal, JPMorgan Chase’s Jim Glassman, head economist for commercial banking, and Bob McArdle, Western New York executive director for commercial banking, discussed the economy and where it’s heading.

In response to a question about the possibility of a recession in the near future, Glassman said: “When you think of what caused problems, what triggered recessions in the past, there’s very little you can see around us that makes us think that has the potential to cause trouble.”

Glassman said the only reason people keep talking about recessions is that the economy is near full employment, and that typically doesn’t last very long once it happens.

“What any economist can tell you is that recessions are hard to predict. (They happen) for two reasons: either the economy is too hot and inflation is running out and we have to pump the brakes; or we have some major financial imbalance brewing,” Glassman said.

This week’s Snap Poll asks about the possibility of a recession.

More than 300 respondents participated in this week’s poll, conducted April 8-9.

How likely do you think it is that the U.S. will enter a recession within the next year?

Very likely — 18%

Somewhat likely — 32%

Not likely at all — 50%

COMMENTS:

There are significant factors that are similar to the 2008 recession—increasingly lax bank regulation of debt, softening real estate market, higher personal debt ratios, flat income increases, manufacturing demand softening, etc. Realistically it will take a single global or regional event to kill the economy—just like the 9/11 terror attacks, or the bank crisis. If we’re lucky we won’t see one. If we’re unlucky it’s going to be a disaster. This recession will be worse. Why? Because no one has any savings to live on after the last recession; more Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. Businesses have learned their lesson and at the first sign of the economy softening they are going to dump cost as fast as they can—first terminating all the contract employees, then rapidly carving into their full-time staff as they seek to reach lowest possible cost rather than expansion mode. In addition, the radically variable economic policies of our current president are causing additional price inflation, and economic uncertainty in core manufacturing areas. No we’re headed for recession. And when it hits … look out. It’s going to be a doozy.

—Lee Drake

Even though the yield curve is inverted on treasuries, the recession will be mild. As long as interest rates remain at historically low levels, the economy should continue to be relatively healthy.

—John Rynne

I still think it depends on what types of jobs are available and how many people are underemployed or on the other side, not skilled enough to advance. We also hope the right people have access to capital so they may grow businesses and create jobs. Reducing or eliminating burdensome regulations with no or very little value add may help grow economies. Rochester is a tale of two cities where many are not reaping the benefits of an economy that is near full employment. We have (at least lately) a restless, violent city with too many underemployed or undereducated to improve the city, compounded by population loss, this region has the potential to enter a recession if improvements are not made.

—Keith Newcomer

A recession is more likely in 2020, than this year. Consumer and student debt will be major factors. Consumer and student debt will eventually cause the housing market to again collapse as first-time home buyers will be unable to put up a down payment or they will get mortgages which choke out any other consumer spending. Trump’s tax cut and spiraling military budget will balloon the deficit to new heights which will only exacerbate the underlying economic troubles. We will need a fiscally conservative Democrat with different economic policies and budget priorities, to clean up the mess Trump is going to leave behind.

—Michael L. Harf

Based on President Trump’s policies it is very unlikely. But because of the do-nothing House of Representatives and the Dems’ desire to destroy the president at all cost whether it’s deserved or not, the economy could lose steam. The Dems do not want the country to be successful under this president. Libs’ hatred of capitalism and everything that makes us great will bring us down every time.

—Michael Higgins

Not likely if Trump looks like the front runner for 2020 elections. Things will go south quickly if it appears that any of the Democrat candidates are going to win.

—Bruce Anderson

Establishment politicians with supporters will create a recession going into the 2020 elections. When you can’t win by leading or solving problems, the establishment will create unnecessary economic issues as rulers rather than serving. Sadly, it is not about governing or serving, it is about power and enrichment through corruption. My apologies for being cynical, but observation and experience have created what is becoming an intolerable situation for the public.

—Bob Scott