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New York manufacturing slumps in September

New York manufacturing slumps in September

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Business activity in New York state contracted modestly in September, reversing gains seen over the summer, according to the Bank of New York’s latest Empire State Survey. 

The general business conditions index dropped twenty-one points to -8.7, its first negative reading since June. Measures of demand and output fell sharply: the new orders index sank thirty-five points to -19.6 and the shipments index slid thirty points to -17.3—both at their lowest levels since April 2024. 

Firms also reported weaker backlogs, shrinking inventories and worsening supply availability. The unfilled orders index turned negative, while the inventories index remained modestly below zero at -4.9. The supply availability index dropped to -8.8, signaling ongoing constraints. 

Employment was little changed. The number-of-employees index hovered around zero after three months of gains, while the average workweek index fell to -5.1, indicating reduced hours. 

On costs, pressures eased slightly. The prices paid index declined eight points to 46.1, suggesting slower—though still elevated—input price increases. Selling prices continued to rise at a moderate pace, with the prices received index steady at 21.6. 

Looking ahead, sentiment remained cautious.  

The index for future business conditions registered 14.8, showing modest optimism about the next six months. Firms anticipate higher orders and shipments, but hiring expectations softened: the future employment index edged close to zero, a rare signal that headcounts may stagnate. Capital spending plans remained muted. 

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