Tag: scri

Residents statewide continue to worry about COVID-19 safety, poll shows

Source: Siena College

More than three-quarters of New Yorkers think about protecting themselves or their families from COVID-19 as they go about their daily lives, according to a new report from Siena College Research Institute.

Statewide, more than one-third of respondents to the poll say they think about it some of the time, while 43 percent say they think about protecting themselves all of the time.

Today, 50 percent say that they think the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is over while 36 percent predict the worst is still to come, compared with a more optimistic 68 percent and 17 percent in June.

The majority of respondents are at least somewhat or very comfortable going to the grocery store (91 percent), eating inside at a local restaurant (73 percent), going to work at the job they had prior to COVID (61 percent), going to a movie (57 percent), attending a professional sporting event (52 percent) and attending a Broadway show (51 percent). Forty-one percent have had disagreements recently with family or friends over issues related to COVID including vaccinations, masking or social distancing. And nearly all New Yorkers, 91 percent, carry a mask with them whenever they leave their home and 77 percent, up from 73 percent in June, are vaccinated, according to the poll.

“COVID concerns and decisions rest on shoulders and weigh on our minds every day,” said SCRI Director Don Levy in a statement. “While nearly everyone is comfortable going to the grocery store, over three-quarters think about protecting their family from getting sick some of the time and over 40 percent think about it all the time. Almost no one leaves home without a mask and four out of every ten of us have had disagreements with family and friends about COVID-related issues.”

The Siena College Poll was conducted Sept. 29 through Oct. 7, 2021, by random phone calls to 394 New York adults via landline and cell phones and 403 responses drawn from a proprietary online panel of New Yorkers.

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Consumer confidence plummets in Q3

Source: SCRI

Consumer sentiment plummeted across New York state in the third quarter, a new report from Siena College Research Institute shows.

The New York State Index of Consumer Sentiment stands at 71.9, down 11.8 points from the last measurement in the second quarter of 2021 and is 4 points below the breakeven point at which sentiment is balanced. Current confidence statewide was 69.7 statewide, while future confidence was 73.2 in the third quarter.

Among upstate consumers, overall confidence — which includes current confidence and future confidence — was 63.4 in the third quarter, a nearly 13-point dip from the second quarter. Current confidence was 66, while future confidence was 61.8, nearly 18 points lower than in the second quarter.

Nationally, overall consumer confidence was 72.8 in the third quarter, a drop of more than 12 points. Current confidence fell to 80.1, while future confidence fell to 68.1.

“A lingering pandemic, inflation, supply chain concerns and little good news out of Washington pulled the plug on consumer sentiment as summer turned to fall. With virtually every number down, most future numbers by double digits, consumers’ willingness to spend even as the holiday season approaches, hit a statewide low since June 2020 and a low not seen since 2011 among Upstaters,” said Doug Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SCRI founding director. “Plans to purchase major consumer goods all fell, with major home improvements down by 10 percentage points. And as gasoline prices have left $3.00 in the rearview mirror, over half of New Yorkers are again sighing at the pump.”

Buying plans in the third quarter were down for vehicles, consumer electronics, homes and major home improvements. Some 58 percent of upstate consumers said gas prices were affecting their finances, while 65 percent said food prices were a somewhat or very serious problem.

Among the state’s demographics, Democrats reported the highest overall confidence at 84, while Republicans reported the lowest at 59.9.

The Siena College Poll was conducted between Sept. 29 and Oct. 7 by random phone calls to nearly 400 New York adults, in addition to more than 400 responses drawn from a proprietary online panel.

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Upstate consumer confidence falls in Q2

Courtesy of Siena College Research Institute
Courtesy of Siena College Research Institute

Confidence among Upstate New York consumers fell during the second quarter, bucking both the statewide and national trend, a new survey from Siena College Research Institute shows.

Overall consumer sentiment in Upstate — which includes future and current confidence — fell to 76.6 during the second quarter from 79.7 in the first quarter. Current confidence tumbled to 72 from 80.7, while future confidence rose to 79.8 from 79.1.

Statewide, overall confidence was 83.7 in the second quarter, compared with 82.5 in the first quarter. Current confidence was 77.7, up from 76.9 in the first quarter, while future confidence increased to 87.6 from 86.1.

Nationally, as compiled by the University of Michigan, consumer confidence in the second quarter rose to 85.5 from 84.9 in the first quarter. Current confidence was 88.6, compared with 93 in the first quarter. Future confidence rose to 83.5 from 79.7.

“Consumer sentiment continued to climb this quarter driven by increases in New York City, among Democrats and as the state’s lowest income bracket residents start to see light at the end of their economic tunnel. Overall, New York is up 17 points from the initial COVID shock as belief in a better tomorrow is now nearly as strong as it was before the pandemic. Upstate isn’t moving toward ‘Happy Days’ as quickly as New York City but outside of the city the future looks brighter than it did in March 2020,” said Doug Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SCRI founding director.

Buying plans were up statewide for vehicles, consumer electronics, homes and major home improvements, while plans to purchase furniture were down slightly.

Democrats statewide reported the highest overall confidence in the second quarter at 96.9, while those over the age of 55 reported the lowest at 71.

Some 57 percent of upstate consumers reported that gas prices were having a somewhat or very serious effect on their wallets, up from 47 percent in the first quarter. Sixty-four percent said food prices were a somewhat or very serious problem, compared with 56 percent in the first quarter.

“Demand for major consumer goods is very robust up 20 percent over March 2020 for cars, 31 percent for furniture and 82 percent for home improvements,” Lonnstrom added. “But, as concern over the impact of gas now exceeds 50 percent and approaches two-thirds for food, price increases, or inflation, could slow this recovery.”

This Siena College Poll was conducted June 16-29, 2021, by random telephone calls to 404 New York adults via landline and cell phones and 405 responses drawn from a proprietary online panel of New Yorkers.

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Upstate confidence improves in Q3

Confidence among upstate consumers improved in the third quarter, following both a statewide and national trend, a new report from Siena College Research Institute shows.

Overall confidence, which includes current and future confidence, rose to 73.8 in the quarter from 68 in the second quarter but remained well below last year’s confidence of 85.3. Current confidence was 73.1 in the third quarter, compared with 71.6 in the second and 95.1 in the third quarter last year. Future confidence rose considerably to 74.2 from 65.7 in the second quarter but remained below last year’s 79.1.

Statewide, overall consumer confidence improved to 74.4 from 71 in the second quarter, while current confidence rose only slightly to 70.9. Future confidence improved to 76.6 from 71.3 in the second quarter.

Consumer sentiment Q3 2020 (source: Siena College Research Institute)
Consumer sentiment Q3 2020 (source: Siena College Research Institute)

Nationally, overall consumer confidence ticked upward to 80.4 from 78.1 in the second quarter. Current confidence was 87.8, compared with 87.1 in the second quarter, while future confidence improved to 75.6 from 72.3 in the second quarter.

“While still down nearly 20 points from pre-pandemic levels, the index of consumer sentiment improved this quarter and now stands just below the balancing point of optimism and pessimism,” said Doug Lonnstrom, SCRI founding director and professor of statistics and finance and Siena College. “The future index, a measure of confidence both personal and collective, is up over five points overall and between eight and 10 points among Republicans, Upstaters and young people.”

Buying plans in the third quarter were up across all categories including vehicles, consumer electronics, furniture, homes and major home improvements, although buying plans for cars, electronics and furniture remain below pre-pandemic rates.

Nearly one-third of upstate consumers said gas prices were having a somewhat or very serious impact on their finances, up from 19 percent in the second quarter. Food prices were affecting 57 percent of upstate consumers in the third quarter, up from 54 percent in the second quarter.

Republicans reported the highest overall confidence in the quarter at 87.1, while those aged 55 and older reported the lowest at 65.9.

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Consumer confidence rebounds statewide, drops in upstate

Confidence among Upstate New York consumers continued to drop in the second quarter, although at not as steep a pace as in the first quarter, a quarterly report from Siena College Research Institute shows.

Source: Siena College Research Institute
Source: Siena College Research Institute

Overall consumer sentiment, which includes current and future sentiment, was 68 in the second quarter, down from 68.9 in the first quarter and 85.2 a year ago. Current confidence among upstate consumers rose to 71.6 from 66.3 in the first quarter, while future confidence fell from 70.6 to 65.7.

Statewide, overall confidence improved to 71 in the second quarter from 66.4 in the first quarter but remained down from 87.1 a year ago. Current confidence was 70.5 statewide, compared with 62.2 in the first quarter, while future confidence rose to 71.3 from 69.1.

Nationally, consumer confidence plummeted to 78.1 from 89.1 in the first quarter and 98.2 a year ago. Current confidence was 87.1, down from 103.7 in the first quarter. Future confidence fell to 72.3 from 79.7 in the first quarter.

“Driven by gains in both current and future sentiment in New York City, the statewide index recovered nearly five points as New Yorkers try to rebound from this pandemic. The overall index, however, is below the breakeven point and is down 22 points from the end of 2019,” said Doug Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SCRI founding director.

Lonnstrom noted that where some said they were better off and expected a good year for the state economy in the first quarter, “now, under the coronavirus cloud, by 8-14 points they say that they are personally worse off and that the year ahead will be a rocky one for New York state.”

In the second quarter, buying plans across the state were up in all categories including vehicles, home improvements, housing, consumer electronics and furniture.

One-quarter of all New Yorkers say that current gasoline prices are having a very serious or somewhat serious impact on their financial condition. This is the lowest percentage in the 12-year history of SCRI’s tracking of the impact of gas prices on New York State consumers. Some 58 percent of state residents indicate that the amount of money they spend on groceries is having either a very serious or somewhat serious impact on their finances.

Among upstate consumers, 19 percent say gas prices are having an impact on their wallets, while 54 percent say food prices are having an impact.

Republicans statewide reported the highest consumer confidence in the second quarter at 80.5, while women reported the lowest at 64.8.

Globally, consumer confidence suffered a record drop in the second quarter. The Conference Board reported a 14-point drop in global confidence to 92 in the second quarter, with North America experiencing the largest drop, 20 points, to 101.

“Early signs of economic rebound in several markets do not necessarily portend a quick recovery in consumer confidence in the coming months,” said Bart van Ark, chief economist of the Conference Board and a co-author of the report. “Countries vary in their approaches to containing the pandemic, managing the direct impacts on employment and income and the trust populations have in their governments, which all influence consumers’ confidence that a recovery will take hold.”

Source: The Conference Board
Source: The Conference Board

A reading below 100 is considered negative, indicating that consumers were slightly more pessimistic than optimistic globally for the first time since 2016. The 14-point drop marks the largest period-on-period decline since the launch of the index in the first quarter of 2005. Moreover, the latest decline is twice as deep as the largest drop during the 2008-9 global financial crisis.

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Survey: Majority of upstate businesses have suffered during pandemic

Less than one-third of Upstate New York CEOs expect the state’s economy to return to pre-virus levels of revenue and employment within the next six months, a new report from Siena College Research Institute shows.

Source: SCRI
Source: SCRI

The Upstate New York Business Leader COVID-19 Survey, sponsored by the Business Council of New York State Inc., shows that just 5 percent of business leaders have not suffered due to the pandemic and 35 percent think their businesses will recover within six months. One-quarter of CEOs say their businesses will recover by the end of 2020, while 35 percent don’t think their businesses will return to pre-virus levels until next year.

Nearly 60 percent of survey respondents say New York’s primary focus should be addressing the public health crisis for the time being, while 35 percent think the state should plan to relax restrictions on business operations and move towards being back in business by the beginning of May.

“Despite having to lay off workers and downgrade economic projections, a majority of upstate CEOs agree with the sentiment expressed by one CEO: ‘People and health first; the economy can wait.’ The good news is that virtually all the CEOs we interviewed expect their business to survive this crisis,” said SCRI’s director Don Levy. “And 61 percent think that New York State’s ‘social distancing’ efforts, including restrictions on business operations in order to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 have been about right.”

Current expectations for revenues and profits – because of COVID-19 – compared to 2020 projections are down significantly, according to the report. Eighty-nine percent predict somewhat or significantly less revenue for the year, and 87 percent forecast somewhat or significantly fewer profits.

Some 40 percent of upstate businesses already have laid off employees and an additional 8 percent anticipate more layoffs by August 1. Fifty-eight percent now plan to purchase fewer fixed assets in 2020 than they did when the year began.

Nearly half of upstate CEOs are confident that the New York State government will take the appropriate steps to assist businesses to weather the impacts of COVID-19, while 50 percent are not very or not at all confident. Some 59 percent are confident that the federal government will take the appropriate steps to assist businesses to recover from the virus’s effects.

Eighty-six percent are somewhat or very familiar with the new and expanded U.S. Small Business Administration loan provisions. Nearly three-quarters plan to participate in the SBA Paycheck Protection Program, while more than one-quarter plan to participate in the Economic Injury Disaster Loan Program.

“This virus has turned life upside down for virtually every New York business, just as it has for nearly every New Yorker. Almost every CEO took steps to protect staff and clients from the virus, more than three-quarters have employees working from home, two-thirds have canceled planned initiatives and almost half have borrowed in order to meet ongoing expenses. And 44 percent have had clients say that the check is not in the mail,” Levy said.

“The results of this poll showed what many expected; businesses are hurting, especially smaller businesses and those in sectors whose operations have been most impacted by the reasonable state-imposed restrictions,” said Heather Briccetti, president and CEO of the Business Council of New York State. “Perhaps the most encouraging result showed employers expect their own companies and their industry sectors to recovery by early 2021.

“At the Business Council we will continue to work with our elected leaders to convey the needs of the business community for a successful economic restart, recognizing that this will only be done as fast as public health considerations allow,” Briccetti added. “The good news is, there’s real opportunity for New York State to partner with the private sector, who understands what it will require to ensure a stronger economy moving forward.”

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Pandemic blamed for plummet in consumer confidence

Consumer confidence across New York state tanked in the first quarter of 2020, due primarily to the effects of COVID-19, a new report from Siena College Research Institute shows.

The Quarterly New York State Index of Consumer Sentiment shows a 27-point drop in overall confidence among consumers statewide to its lowest point since November 2011. Overall confidence for the quarter was 66.4, down from 93 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 93.3 a year ago. Current confidence fell to 62.2, while future confidence dropped to 69.1. Current confidence statewide is more than 15 points below the breakeven point at which sentiment is balanced, SCRI reported.

Among upstate consumers, overall sentiment dropped more than 23 points to 68.9 from 92.4 in the last quarter and 89 a year ago. It was the first time since the second quarter of 2018 that upstate confidence was higher than the state as a whole.

Current confidence among upstate consumers fell to 66.3 in the first quarter from 100 in the final quarter of 2019, while future confidence fell to 70.6 from 87.6 in the previous quarter.

Nationally, as reported by the University of Michigan, overall confidence in the first quarter was 89.1, down from 99.3 in the previous quarter. Current confidence was 103.7, down from 115.5 in the final quarter of 2019, while future confidence fell to 79.7 from 88.9.

“As the Coronavirus took hold of New York, consumer sentiment fell precipitously, signaled a sudden collective feeling of pessimism and reached a low not seen since 2011. A large plurality of consumers now thinks that the state’s business conditions this year, as well as economic times over the coming five years, are in trouble,” said SCRI Founding Director Doug Lonnstrom. “In 20 years of tracking consumer sentiment in New York, we’ve seen more pessimism but never a drop this severe in this short of a time.”

In the first quarter, buying plans across the state were down in all categories including vehicles, consumer electronics, furniture, homes and major home improvements. Plans to purchase electronics were down more than 52 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019.

Republicans reported the highest consumer sentiment statewide at 79.7, while Democrats reported the lowest at 59.9. But consumers in every category are feeling the pinch; statewide, 55 percent of consumers said food prices were having a somewhat or very serious effect on their wallets.

The SCRI poll was conducted from March 30 through April 2 via random phone calls to more than 400 New Yorkers and 400 responses drawn from an online panel.

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Upstate consumer confidence continues to trail state, nation

Confidence among Upstate New York consumers improved slightly in the first quarter this year, a new survey from Siena College Research Institute shows.

Overall confidence, which includes current and future confidence, among upstaters was 89 in the first quarter, up from 88.4 in the fourth quarter and 83.9 a year ago. Current confidence rose to 101.2 from 95.5 in the fourth quarter and 97 a year ago. Future confidence, however, dropped to 81.3 from 83.9 last quarter, but was up from 75.4 a year ago.

Statewide, overall confidence dropped slightly to 93.3 from 93.9 in the fourth quarter, but showed improvement from 87.1 a year ago. Current confidence was 101.2 in the first quarter, compared with 99.3 in the fourth quarter and 96.2 in the year-ago quarter. Future confidence dropped to 88.3 from 90.5 in the fourth quarter, but was up from 81.3 a year ago.

“New York’s Index of Consumer Sentiment remains in the low 90s for the third consecutive quarter, displaying continuing strength among consumers,” SCRI Founding Director Doug Lonnstrom said in a statement. “Despite all the numbers being well above the breakeven point at which optimism and pessimism are balanced, we see now that current sentiment—how we feel about today, and today compared to yesterday—is far stronger than future sentiment.”

Nationally, overall consumer confidence remained relatively flat at 98.4, but was down from 101.4 in the first quarter last year. Current confidence fell to 113.3 from 116.1 in the fourth quarter and 121.2 a year ago. Future confidence was up to 88.8 nationally from 87 in the fourth quarter.

Buying plans statewide in the first quarter were up for furniture and major home improvements, but down for cars and trucks, consumer electronics and homes.

Half of upstate consumers report that gas prices are having a somewhat or very serious effect on their wallets, up from 44 percent in the fourth quarter. Food prices are somewhat or very serious for 62 percent of upstate consumers, up slightly from 60 percent in the fourth quarter, SCRI reported.

New Yorkers in the highest income bracket remain at the top of all demographics in terms of overall confidence, while those age 55 and over reported the lowest overall confidence.

The Siena College poll was conducted by phone in March to more than 380 New Yorkers, while 420 responses were drawn from a proprietary online panel.

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Overall business confidence rises in Rochester

Overall confidence among Rochester’s business leaders reached a four-year high last year, and Rochester was one of two regions upstate to report an improvement in 2018, an annual report from the Siena College Research Institute (SCRI) shows.

buy-cash-coins-8556With an overall confidence index of 96.6, some 28 percent of Rochester respondents said current business conditions were a little or considerably better than they were six months ago. The 12th annual Upstate New York Business Leader Survey, sponsored by the Business Council of New York State Inc., spoke with more than 100 business leaders in Rochester and more than 425 across upstate.

Upstate confidence remained relatively high in 2018, dropping 0.5 point to 96.6. Still, that is below the breakeven point of 100, the point at which equal amounts of business leaders are optimistic and pessimistic about the economy.

“Across upstate, business leader confidence stayed virtually unchanged and remains just below the magic breakeven point this year,” SCRI Director Don Levy said. “Confidence declined in Albany but remains strong and the highest of the four regions. Buffalo was up by almost two points but is still well below breakeven. Rochester rose by three points and Syracuse fell, but sits right on the upstate number.

“Despite holding steady overall, CEO’s future expectations are the lowest we’ve seen in six years,” he added.

Forty percent of Rochester business leaders said they expect the economy to be about the same this year as it was last year, while 30 percent said they expect it to be a little or considerably better.

Some 15 percent of CEOs here believe their revenues this year will decrease moderately or substantially, while 42 percent expect sales to grow moderately. Thirty-nine percent of business leaders expect to enhance their company’s profitability over the next year via market or demand growth, while a quarter said they would accomplish that through cost reduction. Twenty percent expect price increases to enhance profitability this year.

More than half of Rochester’s CEOs said expansion of existing markets was and will continue to be a major area of concentration, and 48 percent said growth in existing products will be a focus. One-third said technology innovation will be an area of concentration this year. Some 58 percent plan to invest in fixed assets this year.

Employment may be on the rise in Rochester this year, as 30 percent of business leaders here said they expect to moderately or substantially increase their workforces. One-tenth said they plan to decrease their workforces in 2019.

Challenges faced by area businesses include health care costs (71 percent), governmental regulation (62 percent), taxation (60 percent) and human resources (47 percent). Some 68 percent of local business leaders said the government in New York State was doing a poor job, while 27 percent said it was doing a fair job. More than half of Rochester respondents said they wanted the governor and legislature to focus on personal and business income tax reform and spending cuts.

Nearly half said they were not at all confident in the ability of the government to improve business conditions for their businesses this year; they were far more optimistic about the federal government improving conditions for their businesses this year. More than half said the federal government is doing a good or excellent job of creating a business climate for companies like theirs.

“Upstate CEOs continue to have little confidence in state government’s efforts to enhance business conditions,” Levy said. “CEOs call for spending cuts and tax reform, and they feel as though the state is moving in the wrong direction on the regulatory environment, spending, ethics reform and workers’ compensation reform. About half, 48 percent, say the Paid Family Leave Law has negatively impacted them.”

More than three-quarters of Rochester’s CEOs oppose placing restrictions on questions about salary history when hiring, a proposal that many say would help close the gender wage gap. Sixty-one percent said they oppose placing restrictions on questions about credit history as well.

“We are seeing several significant recurring themes,” Business Council President and CEO Health Briccetti said. “While business leaders feel confident in how they are addressing factors within their control and that they have benefited from some major federal policy initiatives, they still feel that a major burden is being imposed by New York State with little expectation of relief.”

Briccetti noted that employers remain concerned about the availability of skilled workers.

“To us, the message is clear: the state needs to both promote economic growth and reduce self-imposed economic headwinds,” she said.

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Upstate consumer confidence falls, trails nation

Confidence among upstate consumers continued to lag that of the nation and of the rest of New York State, a quarterly report from Siena College Research Institute shows.

Overall confidence, which includes current and future confidence, among upstate consumers in the fourth quarter dropped to 88.4 from 92.3 in the third quarter. Current confidence fell to 95.5 from 100.4, while future confidence tumbled to 83.9 from 87.1 in the third quarter. Upstate consumer confidence was slightly higher a year ago, SCRI data shows.

Source: Siena College Research Institute
Source: Siena College Research Institute

Overall consumer confidence statewide improved slightly to 93.9 from 93.6 in the third quarter and 92.3 a year ago. Current confidence was 99.3, compared with 98.5 in the third quarter, while future confidence was unchanged at 90.5 in the fourth quarter.

Overall confidence nationally fell to 98.3 in the fourth quarter from 100.1 in the third quarter, but was up from 95.9 a year ago. Current confidence nationwide was 116.1, compared with 115.2 in the third quarter, while future confidence fell to 87 from 90.5 in the previous quarter.

“Despite stock market volatility, consumer sentiment among New Yorkers remains robust,” SCRI Director Don Levy said in a statement. “The index continues in the low to mid 90s, displaying far more optimism than pessimism across New York.”

Levy noted that 51 percent of respondents to the quarterly survey expect good business conditions in 2019, while 34 percent anticipate bad times.

“Looking back, as we often do as the calendar changes, we remember five years ago when an index of 74 measured sentiment right at the breakeven point, and 10 years ago when at an index of 58, we were worried about economic collapse,” Levy said. “Thirty-one percent of New Yorkers still say that they were worse off a year ago than they are today, but compared to five or 10 years ago, consumers are in a very strong position.”

Consumers in the highest income bracket of $100,000 or more continued to report the highest overall confidence in the fourth quarter, while those age 55 or more reported the lowest at 87.

Buying plans in the fourth quarter were up in each of the consumer segments, including vehicles, consumer electronics, furniture, homes and major home improvements.

“Two-thirds of New Yorkers say that this is a good time to buy the big items that consumers purchase and it looks like many will do just that,” Levy said. “Nearly one in four plan to buy a car or truck in the coming six months, half will buy electronics and nearly one in eight intend to purchase a home.”

Some 44 percent of upstate consumers continue to say gas prices are a somewhat serious or very serious problem, up from 41 percent in the third quarter. Food prices also are of concern; 60 percent of upstate consumers said food prices were a problem, up from 53 percent in the previous quarter.

The Siena College poll was conducted in early December via random phone calls to 500 adults statewide.

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Upstate consumer sentiment on the rise

(Source: Siena College Research Institute)
(Source: Siena College Research Institute)

Confidence among upstate consumers continued its upward climb in the third quarter, a new report from Siena College Research Institute shows.

Overall confidence—which includes current and future confidence—among Upstate New York consumers rose to 92.3 in the third quarter, its highest since the first quarter of 2017. Current confidence remained in the triple digits at 100.4, while future confidence rose to 87.1.

Upstate consumers’ confidence continued to lag their counterparts statewide and nationally. Overall confidence in New York was 93.6 in the third quarter, while current confidence was 98.5 and future confidence was 90.5.

Nationally, overall confidence was 100.1, up from 98.2 in the second quarter. Current confidence was 115.2, while future confidence was 90.5.

“New Yorkers remain bullish about the economy and their personal finances this quarter as the index rose by over four points, closed the gap between New York and the traditionally higher national number and nearly tied the recent high recorded a year and a half ago,” SCRI founding director Doug Lonnstrom said in a news release. “Driving the strength of the index is increasing optimism towards future conditions enjoyed by every demographic except low income and older New Yorkers, who held steady.”

Buying plans in the third quarter were up for vehicles and consumer electronics, while plans to purchase furniture, homes and major home improvements were down.

Forty-one percent of upstate consumers said gas prices were having a somewhat or very serious effect on their wallets, down from 48 percent in the second quarter. More than half said food prices were a somewhat or very serious problem.

Lonnstrom said the decline in the seriousness of gas and food prices contribute to the growing optimism statewide and should lead to an increase in consumer spending.

New Yorkers in the highest income bracket reported the highest overall confidence in the third quarter, while those in the lower income and over the age of 55 reported the lowest sentiment, SCRI reported.

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Upstate spenders show confidence vis-a-vis rest of nation

Business intelligence using modern technologyConfidence among upstate consumers soared in the second quarter, bucking a nationwide trend, Siena College Research Institute reported Wednesday.

Overall consumer confidence—which includes current and future confidence—in Upstate New York last quarter rose more than 7 points to 90.7, from 83.9 in the first quarter. Overall confidence a year ago in upstate was 90.1.

Current confidence breached the triple-digit mark for the first time in more than a decade. At 101.2, current confidence was up more than 4 points from 97 in the first quarter, and up slightly from 99.6 in the second quarter last year.

Future confidence upstate also was on the rise in the second quarter to 83.9 from 75.4 in the first quarter. Future confidence a year ago was 83.9.

Statewide, SCRI reported overall consumer confidence of 89.2, up from 87.1 in the first quarter, but down from 92.1 in the second quarter last year. Current confidence was up slightly from 96.2 in the first quarter to 96.6 in the second quarter, while future confidence rose to 84.4 from 81.3 in the first quarter.

“For the 15th consecutive quarter, consumer sentiment across New York State is well above the optimism/pessimism breakeven point,” SCRI Founding Director Doug Lonnstrom said in a statement.

Nationally, overall sentiment was 98.2 in the second quarter, compared with 101.4 in the first quarter, while current confidence was 116.5, compared with 121.2 in the first quarter and 112.5 a year ago. Future confidence was 86.1 in the second quarter, compared with 88.8 in the first quarter.

Buying plans among consumers statewide were up for vehicles, consumer electronics, furniture and homes, while plans to make major home improvements were down in the quarter.

Some 48 percent of upstate consumers said gas prices were having a somewhat or very serious effect on their wallets, up significantly from 34 percent in the first quarter. Fifty-one percent said food prices were a somewhat or very serious problem, down from 55 percent in the first quarter.

“New Yorkers notice and feel the price at the pump immediately. Concern over gasoline prices hit 40 percent for the first time since June of 2015 when prices last flirted with $3 a gallon,” Lonnstrom said. “Buying plans for major consumer items were all up this quarter and remain high, signaling continued consumer driven activity throughout the economy.”

Republicans carried the state in terms of overall confidence, while consumers in the lower income bracket reported the lowest overall confidence at 80.5 in the first quarter.

“Despite, or perhaps because of a volatile stock market, fears of tariffs and a wholesale trade war, consumer sentiment rose dramatically among Republicans, while Democrats, although up a point, trail Republicans by 18 points,” Lonnstrom said.

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