Consumer confidence plummets in Q3

Consumer sentiment plummeted across New York state in the third quarter, a new report from Siena College Research Institute shows.

The New York State Index of Consumer Sentiment stands at 71.9, down 11.8 points from the last measurement in the second quarter of 2021 and is 4 points below the breakeven point at which sentiment is balanced. Current confidence statewide was 69.7 statewide, while future confidence was 73.2 in the third quarter.

Among upstate consumers, overall confidence — which includes current confidence and future confidence — was 63.4 in the third quarter, a nearly 13-point dip from the second quarter. Current confidence was 66, while future confidence was 61.8, nearly 18 points lower than in the second quarter.

Nationally, overall consumer confidence was 72.8 in the third quarter, a drop of more than 12 points. Current confidence fell to 80.1, while future confidence fell to 68.1.

“A lingering pandemic, inflation, supply chain concerns and little good news out of Washington pulled the plug on consumer sentiment as summer turned to fall. With virtually every number down, most future numbers by double digits, consumers’ willingness to spend even as the holiday season approaches, hit a statewide low since June 2020 and a low not seen since 2011 among Upstaters,” said Doug Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SCRI founding director. “Plans to purchase major consumer goods all fell, with major home improvements down by 10 percentage points. And as gasoline prices have left $3.00 in the rearview mirror, over half of New Yorkers are again sighing at the pump.”

Buying plans in the third quarter were down for vehicles, consumer electronics, homes and major home improvements. Some 58 percent of upstate consumers said gas prices were affecting their finances, while 65 percent said food prices were a somewhat or very serious problem.

Among the state’s demographics, Democrats reported the highest overall confidence at 84, while Republicans reported the lowest at 59.9.

The Siena College Poll was conducted between Sept. 29 and Oct. 7 by random phone calls to nearly 400 New York adults, in addition to more than 400 responses drawn from a proprietary online panel.

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