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Snap Poll: Most expect no Brexit impact here

Britain’s vote last Thursday to leave the European Union sent shock waves through the global economy. The Brexit result left both businesses and individual investors struggling to assess the implications for them.

A majority of respondents—60 percent—to this week’s RBJ Daily Report Snap Poll expect no impact from the Brexit vote on their business or workplace. A quarter of respondents anticipate a negative impact on their place of work.

No country ever has left the 28-nation EU. While the U.K. referendum is not legally binding, Britain is widely expected to invoke Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon, which triggers a two-year period exit period.

Reaction to the 52 percent to 48 percent vote was swift. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 610 points, or 3.4 percent, while the S&P 500 index slid 3.6 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 7 percent, its biggest decline since 2008, and the British pound plunged to its lowest value in more than 30 years—including a more than 10 percent drop against the U.S. dollar.

U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday for the first time in three sessions, recovering some of their losses.

Most Snap Poll respondents said it’s unlikely they will make changes to their investment portfolio because of Brexit. One-third says it’s not at all likely, while 41 percent said it’s not very likely. This compares with 20 percent who said it’s somewhat likely, and 6 percent who very likely will make changes.

Economists say the Brexit vote could dampen trade and push Britain—the EU’s second-largest economy—and Europe into recession. A stronger dollar, meanwhile, could hurt U.S. exports while reducing import prices.

More than 325 respondents participated in this week’s poll, which was conducted June 27 and 28.

In your view, what impact is the Brexit vote likely to have on your business or place of employment?

Very positive:  4%  Somewhat positive:  6%  Somewhat negative:  26%  Very negative:  4%  No impact:  60%

Personally, are you likely to make changes to your investment portfolio due to Brexit?
Very likely:   6%  Somewhat likely:  20%  Not very likely:  41%  Not at all likely:  33%

Absolutely no impact. After all, Britain is just a little island off of Europe!
—John Midolo, RCM Strategies LLC

We also need to remember that the referendum is not at all binding, and that—due in no small part to Cameron’s clever resignation—there is a distinct possibility that Article 50 may never be fully invoked.
—Drew D. Saur

In the aggregate, what Brexit does is set precedent for the general, uneducated/uninformed public to make terrible mistakes based on emotion rather than facts. President Donald Trump, anyone? Imagine what that will do to everyone’s stock portfolios, not to mention the safely and security of the world.
—Eve Elzenga, Eve Elzenga Design

The wisest thing I have read is that the British should follow the Swiss example, stay out of EU, but establish treaties to work together. Maybe a lesson for states and federal coexistence.
—Daniel Herpst, Rochester

Unbalanced trade, illegal immigration, and more regulations are not fair to the U.K. or the U.S. people. Some people benefit, but not most people. How would any group of people like to be treated like this? Unless both sides benefit in agreements, there may be problems. The Golden Rule and Kantian ethics are very important and are built into the U.K. and U.S. laws. I expect problems in France, Italy, Germany and other key EU countries.
—Chuck Masick

This is a great step forward for the British people. Let’s hope that the Germans and the French follow suit and we can be done with this foolish European Union. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if the “United” States would learn a lesson and reduce the federal government’s involvement in state and local affairs.
—Kenya Burn-Moore, Rochester

If this triggers a long anticipated slowdown or recession, it will impact everyone’s business!
—J.P. Gleason

All the hoopla about Britain exiting sounds likes extremism to rile the markets and let people make some money as the market fluctuates due to all the hype. Let’s see, what’s to stop American companies from buying product from the U.K. now that they have pronounced their will to exit? What will stop the U.K. from buying product from American companies? There’s nothing that will stop the basic business decisions made every day. All the negativism is all about the U.K. having the audacity to stand up to the “central” European government out of Brussels and saying no more! Sounds a bit similar to the 1770s to me.
—Keith B. Robinson, Diamond Packaging

I can see where it would put a hardship on the rest of the EU. I think it is good they took back their country. The U.S.A. should follow suit.
—Mark Williams

The Brits will do fine. It’s only a small blip on the radar screen. The globalists including most of the media would have you believe it’s a major long-term detriment for Britain. Britain is slowly losing its sovereignty through a flood of poor immigrants who are dependent on Britain’s financial safety net and are not assimilating into the culture. In addition, European Union members such as Greece have weakened the financial stability of the European Union.
—John Rynne

As a provider of medical services locally, I don’t foresee any direct effect on my business. Overall, I feel that the economies of both England and the rest of the EU will do more poorly divided than they would do together. If both do more poorly, the U.S. economy will do better and more patients can afford my services.
—Clifford Jacobson M.D., Vanguard Psychiatric Services P.C.

7/1/2016 (c) 2016 Rochester Business Journal. To obtain permission to reprint this article, call 585-546-8303 or email rbj@rbj.net.


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