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Labor Bureau projections show shifts by 2005

Whites, who now make up 77 percent of the labor force, will account for only two-thirds of the entrants into the work force by 2005.
Blacks and Hispanics will be represented nearly equally, with more Hispanics than blacks entering the labor force by 2005.
Women will enter the work force at a more rapid pace than will men. Still, men will supply slightly more than half of the labor-supply entrants by 2005.
As the baby-boom generation continues to age, those 55 years and older will constitute a faster-growing labor force than will younger workers. The 25-to-34 labor force will decline by almost 4 million, reflecting the decrease in births in the late 1960s and early 1970s.
These and other employment projections come courtesy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor, which recently released its job outlook for 1994 to 2005.
In that period, the Labor Department projects an increase of 16 million workers, from 131 million to 147 million. At 12 percent, the increase is less than the 16 percent increase over the previous 11-year period, 1982 to 1993.
Used to study long-range economic and employment trends, plan education and training programs, and develop career information, the Labor Department statistics are calculated three ways: to account for low, moderate and high growth patterns for the gross domestic product. The numbers cited here reflect moderate growth, which means that personal-consumption expenditures will continue to account for roughly two-thirds of GDP, and that foreign trade will continue to increase faster than other demand components.
Also among the projections for the period 1994 to 2005:
–Service-producing industries will account for virtually all job growth. Only construction will add jobs in the goods-producing sector.
–Manufacturing’s share of total jobs will decline, with a decrease projected of 1.3 million jobs. (Instead of accounting for one of every seven jobs, manufacturing in 2005 will account for just less than one of every eight jobs.) But manufacturing will maintain its share of total output, as productivity is projected to increase.
–Health services, business services and social services will account for almost one of every two jobs added to the economy. Of the 10 fastest-growing industries, nine belong to one of these three industry groups.
–Professional specialty occupations will increase the fastest and add more than 5 million jobs. Service occupations–at the opposite end of the education and earnings spectrum–will add 4.6 million jobs. Together, they will provide more than half of the total projected job growth.
–Increased office automation, and continuing advances in factory technology and production methods will contribute to slow growth among administrative-support staff and manufacturing workers.
–Occupations requiring some degree of education and training will increase in numbers, with 5 percent growth for jobs requiring moderate on-the-job training and 29 percent growth for jobs requiring a master’s degree.
–The 10 fastest-growing occupations include workers at all educational levels; half are health-related jobs. They are, in order of percentage growth: personal and home-care aides; home health aides; systems analysts; computer engineers; physical- and corrective-therapy assistants and aides; electronic-pagination-systems workers; occupational-therapy assistants and aides; physical therapists; residential counselors; and human-services workers.
–The 10 occupations adding the most jobs will account for more than one-quarter of total employment growth. They are, in order of numerical growth: cashiers; janitors and cleaners, including maids and housekeepers; retail salespeople; waiters and waitresses; registered nurses; general managers and top executives; systems analysts; home health aides; guards; and nursing aides, orderlies and attendants.
For more information on these projections, contact the Labor Department at 202-606-7828.


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